Why is Mohammed Siraj so much better without Jasprit Bumrah in India's Test XI?

Note: All figures correct up to July 1, 2025 (prior to ongoing Edgbaston Test)

In the 1990s, ESPN analyst Bill Simmons and his close friend Dave Cirilli proposed the Ewing Theory. Named for New York Knicks star Patrick Ewing, it was simple enough, though counter-intuitive: they noted that in team sports, the confluence of two factors – the presence of a star that received an inordinate amount of media attention, and their subsequent absence (for whatever reason) – could actually result in improved performance by the team.

The theory has been hotly debated in the twenty or so years since it was proposed, and for many it would be filed under spurious correlation, rather than serious phenomenon.

When India announced that neither Jasprit Bumrah nor Kuldeep Yadav would play the Edgbaston Test, there was widespread surprise, and questions were raised over how they planned to take 20 wickets with a bowling attack of Mohammed Siraj, Prasidh Krishna, Akash Deep, Washington Sundar and Ravindra Jadeja.

But by the morning of day two, having scored 587, India had reduced their hosts to 84-5. Siraj had taken 3-22 and Akash Deep 2-42, before Harry Brook and Jamie Smith set about repairing the damage in belligerent fashion.

With Siraj, in relation to Bumrah, India might have their own, discount, version of the Ewing Theory in action.

Siraj: Attacked more when Bumrah is around?

First, the numbers. When playing alongside Bumrah, Siraj has taken 69 wickets in 23 Tests, at an average of 33.82. Before the Edgbaston Test, he had 33 wickets in 14 Tests without the support of his senior partner, at an average of 27.66 (as of the end of day three, that is 39 in 15, at 25.2).

Mohammed Siraj – Test career

Siraj's Test debut came alongside Bumrah, and in fact, he excelled with match figures of 5-77 at Melbourne. He was elevated to the status of attack leader in Bumrah's absence two Tests later as India pulled off their famous victory at the Gabba in 2021 – returning 6-150 in the match.

The most straightforward explanation for why Siraj has a better record in his absence may just have to do with batters' attitudes. Opponents often tend to take fewer risks against Bumrah, and in the process they may be going after Siraj more, compared to when Bumrah does not play. His higher economy rate supports this, but Siraj hasn't quite benefitted from the other side of the higher-intent coin; he doesn't strike more often in these cases.

Getting in the game earlier might benefit Siraj

Splitting Siraj's record with and without Bumrah on the basis of country is not highly instructive – in most venues, he has only played one or two games without him. What is interesting is the stark difference in his record in India, where Siraj has played six Tests with Bumrah and eight without.

Mohammed Siraj – Test record by country

The more significant difference, perhaps, is in the later positions. Without Bumrah, Siraj is a first-change bowler at the latest, over 75 per cent of the time. With him, he is a second or third-change once every three innings, on average.

It's unlikely that the difference in returns is just down to Siraj taking versus not taking the new ball, but could be more to do with him getting involved in the game sooner.

The 'intangibles' theory

Siraj has always been a bowler that likes a bit of needle, or getting involved with the opposition. “He likes to get aggressive,” Dinesh Karthik said about Siraj on commentary during the first Test of the ongoing series.

“In one game, he came up against Phil Salt. The game was in Delhi. RCB were chasing and he thought it was the best way to get himself pumped up. Siraj gave a few words back to Phil Salt and then Salt took off after that. After the match got over, I asked Siraj 'Why did you have to go after him?' You were bowling so nicely. He said 'No, I just wanted to instill some fear'.”

Perhaps, as an extension, Siraj subconsciously has a sharper focus when he is in the thick of things earlier on.

Read more: England wicketkeeper sets Test world first with hundred before lunch after coming in on hat-trick ball

It may also be that he thrives on the responsibility of being the leader of the bowling attack. At the end of day one at Edgbaston, fellow quick Akash Deep had persistent issues with the state of the wicket at the bowling crease; perhaps unsure of his footing upon landing, he brought it to the umpire's notice on multiple occasions.

On one of those, stump mics caught Siraj coming up from mid-on to tell him, “Don't keep it [the ground] in mind. It's there, what can you do about it?” Bumrah's presence on the field, of course, does not necessarily stop Siraj from taking up this sort of mentoring role, but it's hard to imagine him doing it as confidently and whole-heartedly.

“In our bowling attack, I have played the most matches, so the aim from my end was not to try too much; hold an end tight,” he told broadcasters at the end of day three at Edgbaston. “Akash [Deep] and Prasidh [Krishna], this is only their third or fourth match, and we had 600 (587) on the board, so I was trying as much as possible to be consistent.

“I thought if we build pressure, and bowl in partnerships, maybe the one bowling with me can get wickets too. I love responsibility, I love challenge.”

Hello luck, our old friend

Alternatively, there is always the explanation of dumb luck. It's not hugely likely over 38 Tests, but on more than a few occasions Siraj has stood out as one of the less fortunate bowlers in India's attack.

The perception of his abilities is also shaped by his tendency to blow hot and cold; he started poorly in the first innings at Headingley, but subsequently troubled England's batters on several occasions. The edge just wasn't forthcoming (and when it was, fielders let him down). That first spell, and a couple of other iffy moments, coloured much of the discourse around his largely solid performance.

Whatever the explanation, it is certainly an interesting slicing of Siraj's career. In a series where Bumrah is expected to play only two more Tests, India will hope he can keep it going.

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