On Sunday, the Pakistan government announced a boycott of Pakistan's T20 World Cup group stage match against India. Here's why the decision could hit them harder than initially expected.
"The Government of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan grants approval to the Pakistan Cricket Team to participate in the ICC World T20 2026, however, the Pakistan Cricket Team shall not take the field in the match scheduled on 15th February 2026 against India," read a statement from the official X (Twitter) handle of the government on February 1, less than a week before the start of the tournament.
Shortly afterwards, the ICC issued a statement saying they had not yet received any communication from the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) on the matter, and urged the board to consider the "significant and long-term implications" of the boycott if it were to go through.
Refusing to take the field would constitute a forfeit of the match on Pakistan's part, and this is not a first at an ICC event. Given the draw of the India-Pakistan fixture for broadcasters though, and the resultant loss of revenue in case of a boycott, the tone of the ICC's response suggests that further off-field sanctions could be in the offing.
Even with regards to Pakistan's tournament, the effects of the call could be greater than they appear now.
The most straightforward hit to their chances of progression from the group stage to the Super Eights is the fact that they now do not even have the chance to try taking two points from the encounter against India; neither can they earn one point they might have gotten in case the match was washed out.
Were they to play, Pakistan may still have lost the match, and come away from it with zero points. On this front, the boycott is no worse for their situation. Given that the other three teams in Group A are all Associate nations in Namibia, Netherlands and the USA, Pakistan would still fancy their chances of winning all three of those matches. That would still be enough for them to finish in the top two and qualify for the next stage of the tournament.
But there are a couple of snags.
Weather to play spoilsport?
Number one is the weather. Pakistan are stationed in Colombo for the entire tournament, as per the neutral-venue agreement worked out with the ICC ahead of last year's Champions Trophy. At the Women's World Cup in 2025, the venue became notorious for washouts. While the monsoon season now is not quite as intense, the threat still looms.
Most pertinently, rain could affect Pakistan's opening match, against the Netherlands on February 7. That is scheduled for 11:00am local time, and Accuweather puts the chances of precipitation that morning at 65 per cent. BBC Weather is slightly more optimistic at around 20 per cent.
Were Pakistan to split points from the game against the Netherlands, their situation would become more precarious. In that case, a situation could arise where India top the group with four wins, and Netherlands and Pakistan are tied on points for second spot (assuming both teams defeat Namibia and the USA).
Then, qualification would come down to net run rate. This is where the second aspect comes in.
The net run rate snag that could hit Pakistan hard
The Playing Conditions for the 2026 T20 World Cup have not yet been published, but according to section 16.10.9 of the Playing Conditions for the 2024 edition, "In circumstances where a match (and the points for such match) is awarded to a team as a result of the other team’s refusal to play, either by the match referee in accordance with playing condition 16.2 or in accordance with the provisions of the relevant event agreements signed by the participating teams, the net run rate of the defaulting team shall be affected in that the full 20 overs of the defaulting team’s innings in such forfeited match shall be taken into account in calculating the average runs per over of the defaulting team over the course of the relevant portion of the competition."
If this were to be followed, for calculating their net run rate, Pakistan would be considered as scoring zero runs in their 20 overs against India; a situation far worse than any realistic loss would have put them in. It would make qualification much more difficult in case of a tie on points.
Since the regulations for 2026 are not out yet, there is a chance that this net run rate rule might not be part of the equation. But equally, there is a chance that changes can be made, more specifically that the ICC increase the points penalty for a forfeit.
This idea has been floated before, when England forfeited their 2003 World Cup match against Zimbabwe. Then-BCCI president Jagmohan Dalmiya called on the ICC to dock England four more points, on top of the four they had already given up by not playing the game. It was not implemented then, but in 2026 we are in uncharted waters; it could be on the table now.
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