When to deploy the cheat code: How India can optimise Jasprit Bumrah's overs

The defending champions head into the 2026 Men’s T20 World Cup as overwhelming favourites, with the chance to become the first team to go back-to-back, and the first host to win the tournament.

While their batting has been the envy of the T20 world over the past couple of seasons, India’s bowlers have been no less impressive.

The proverbial Ferrari in their garage is fast bowler Jasprit Bumrah, undoubtedly one of the greats of this format (and indeed the other two).

At this stage of his career, Bumrah is almost a plug-and-play bowler, without the limitations certain others may have in terms of flagging performance in one phase of the game or another. Indeed, across his T20I career, he goes at a shade over seven runs per over at the death (overs 17-20), and is less expensive in all other phases.

This gives India the chance to experiment with his overs in a way that isn’t quite possible with other teams or players.

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How have India used Bumrah's overs so far?

India’s previous World Cup campaign had a clear demarcation of conditions – the New York leg saw them field four quicks, including all-rounder Hardik Pandya.

In these games, Bumrah’s entry was largely delayed until the second half of the Powerplay. Only against Pakistan – when India were defending a low target – did he come into the game earlier. He also tended to bowl two in the middle (one each in overs 7-11 and 12-16).

Once India went to the West Indies in that tournament, they swapped Mohammed Siraj for an extra spinner in Kuldeep Yadav. Bumrah bowled two Powerplay overs in every match in the Caribbean, and his last two overs were usually reserved for the back end, with one in the last four.

After that tournament, India had a change of head coach and captain, from Rahul Dravid and Rohit Sharma to Gautam Gambhir and Suryakumar Yadav. Bumrah did not play another T20I until the Asia Cup, over a year later.

This was where one drastic change came about.

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The SKY-Gambhir change

India often played just two pacers at the Asia Cup, Bumrah and Hardik Pandya. They now front-loaded Bumrah’s overs to let him use the new ball, rather than spreading them out over the game.

He bowled three in the Powerplay in four out of five games – only in the final against Pakistan did he bowl two up front, and then two of the last four. This continued for the first two T20Is in Australia, where India retained the combination of only two fast bowlers.

When India returned home for back-to-back series against South Africa and New Zealand, they reverted to a three-pronged pace attack – and Bumrah’s overs moved later. In five of the seven matches he played here, he started his spell only in the second half of the Powerplay.

One in the Powerplay, one in overs 7-11 and two in overs 17-20 has been the template of late. This is probably most indicative of how India will look to distribute his overs in the T20 World Cup.

In all likelihood, they will have Arshdeep Singh and Hardik Pandya as the other frontline quicks. Shivam Dube will likely be a fourth, part-time option; he has been in somewhat unexpectedly good bowling form of late. Axar Patel and Varun Chakaravarthy will head up the spin attack. If India need a third option, Kuldeep Yadav could replace Arshdeep.

The case for back-loading Bumrah

How to allocate Bumrah’s overs would make for an intriguing study in optimisation. On the most basic level, India will have balance where they feel he is at his best, against potential gaps in the rest of their attack. The task, of course, is made easier by the fact that Varun Chakaravathy more often than not provides another ‘lockdown’ four overs.

Perhaps the most significant question is whether Bumrah should bowl in the Powerplay at all. There is a strain of thought, mainly in Test cricket, that for all of his talents, Bumrah is not always at his best with the brand new ball.

The counter to that is in the shortest format, when batters usually try to get their eye in during the first three overs, Bumrah remains a good enough bowler to beat them on defense even early on. But of late, this has not quite been the case.

Since the end of the last T20 World Cup, Bumrah’s 11 overs in the first half of the Powerplay have gone at under run-a-ball, but have yielded just two wickets. Batters are content to not attack, and keep wickets in hand off his bowling. Contrast that with Arshdeep, who is significantly more expensive, but on average takes nearly one wicket per innings in that phase.

Most of Bumrah’s Powerplay work has come in overs 4-6, but a strike rate of 60 balls per wicket in this timeframe point to him not being much more effective as a strike bowler. He doesn’t leak runs by any means, but even Varun, for example, has been far more restrictive.

The signs point to a back-loading of Bumrah’s overs as the most optimal, something Mumbai Indians did often in the IPL last year as Trent Boult and Deepak Chahar largely took over the Powerplay.

India have two phase (or sub-phase) specialists in Arshdeep with the new ball and Varun to take over the back half of the Powerplay. An over each of Pandya and Axar in between, could be the broad-strokes formula. There is of course, wiggle room provided throughout the innings by the likes of Dube and Abhishek Sharma, in the event of one bowler having a bad day.

India bowlers – Phase-wise performance since June 30, 2024

Eighteen months ago, Abhishek Mukherjee detailed how Bumrah affects more than just his four overs of a T20. India’s champion often affects what happens before he comes on. Opponents that get through a Powerplay without having faced Bumrah know that four of the next 14 will be his. It makes maximising everything around those four overs that much more important.

This has two effects – extra risks taken against other bowlers, and Bumrah’s own tendency to restrict runs. The longer he stays off, the more the batting team knows they will have to either make merry before he does, or go after him when he comes on, risking a spectacular collapse. It’s a kind of decision-making process that can feel particularly suffocating.

If India can keep Bumrah to just one over in the first ten, one in the middle when they feel they need to ‘buy a wicket’ or put the brakes on the scoring, and two in the last four, they may be able to make the best use of his near-superhuman status as a T20 bowler. Even more extreme, in case things are going exceedingly well, could be to keep all four in the bank for the last ten.

Of course, this logic largely applies to first-innings bowling. If, for example, India put up a subpar total batting first, it is well worth front-loading the overs a lot more in order to make use of their best resource.

This is not a decision that will define India’s World Cup campaign as such. But come crunch time in the more volatile knockout matches, the entire game could pivot on a big or small over here or there. It is certainly worth considering, or trying out if India end up with a lower-stakes group game in which they can experiment.

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