The four playoff berths for IPL 2024 have been decided, but RR and SRH are still in the race for one spot in Qualifier 1.

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With 19 points in 13 games, Kolkata Knight Riders have made it to the Qualifier 1 of IPL 2024, to be played at Ahmedabad on May 21.

After tonight (May 19), one of Rajasthan Royals (16 from 13) and Sunrisers Hyderabad (15 from 13) will face them there. The other will clash with Royal Challengers Bengaluru (14 from 14) in the Eliminator on May 22, also to be played at Ahmedabad.

With two matches left in the league stage, this is where the teams stand.

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IPL 2024 league stage matches left:

May 19, 3.30 PM IST: Sunrisers Hyderabad v Punjab Kings, Hyderabad
May 19, 7.30 PM IST: Rajasthan Royals v Kolkata Knight Riders, Guwahati

Scenario 1: RR beat KKR

If RR beat KKR, they will make it to the top two irrespective of the outcome of SRH versus PBKS. RR will then face KKR (again) in Qualifier 1 on May 21.

Scenario 2: SRH beat PBKS, RR lose to KKR

In this case, SRH will leapfrog RR, reach 17 points, and make it to Qualifier 1. Left behind on 16, RR will then play RCB in the Eliminator.

Scenario 3: SRH beat PBKS, RR-KKR abandoned

This will leave SRH and RR on 17 points each. SRH (net run rate +0.406) are ahead of RR (+0.273), which puts them at an advantage. A win by a very narrow margin will reduce SRH’s NRR, but even a Super Over win will not take it below RR’s.

If SRH score 200 and win on Super Over, their net run rate will drop to +0.373. If they score 150 and tie, the number will read +0.366. In the most extreme theoretical case of both sides being bowled out for zero, SRH’s net run rate will read +0.345.

Scenario 4: SRH-PBKS abandoned, KKR beat RR

This will leave SRH and RR tied on 16 points. Since RR’s NRR is already worse than SRH’s, SRH will go through to Qualifier 1.