It’s been over a decade since the last time Australia walked off the field as losers at Lord’s.
Back in 2013, when the Ashes were in England’s hands for the last time to date, an XI led by Michael Clarke which contained Shane Watson and Chris Rogers were mullered by a 343-run margin. The only two players in common with that defeat 12 years ago and the one they succumbed to today are Usman Khawaja and Steve Smith.
As in 2013, the pivotal moment of the World Test Championship final was a brutal batting collapse. While Kagiso Rabada’s spell on the opening morning will be remembered as one of his fiercest in the format, he cut through a weakness in Australia’s top order to force the door open in a lineup which has previously looked impenetrable.
Bumping Marnus Labuschagne up to open, in the midst of a prolonged decline in his Test career, was a fudge. Australia felt they needed to find a way of squeezing Cameron Green back into the XI as a specialist batter, while also balancing their side with an all-rounder in the middle order. Instead of taking the brave option, like selecting breakout star of the last home summer Sam Konstas or sticking with Travis Head as opener from the Sri Lanka series to land a few blows against a hungry South Africa pace attack, they opted for caution. While Labuschagne had never opened in a Test before this week, his skillset at No.3 was deemed sufficient to see off the new ball and his partnership with Khawaja well established enough to overlook his now three-year run slump.
Australia have featured in 14 ICC senior world finals, losing only four.
— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) June 14, 2025
The recent WTC final loss marks just their second defeat in a major final this century, across ten appearances 😲 pic.twitter.com/VvF1gcsF0n
It was two loose drives, however, separated by less than 36 hours which sent Labuschagne back to the dressing room within the first half hour of both innings starting. On both of those occasions, he would join Khawaja and Green who had already been run through by Rabada. At 38 years old, and having successfully reversed the narrative of his Test career over the last few years, there were brief murmurings before the game that this could be Khawaja’s last hurrah, a win perhaps sparking a glorious high-point retirement. Khawaja was Australia’s highest run-scorer in this WTC cycle, but the most likely scenario going forward is that they will have to do at least the second half of their bid for a third consecutive final without him. Now over two years on from David Warner’s retirement, and little closer to finding a permanent replacement, that challenge is set to double in the near future.
Even with losing those early wickets, Australia still had their Lord’s maestro. When South Africa’s opening bowlers rotated out of the attack on day one, it allowed room for Steve Smith to begin a familiar story. However, that third Lord’s century, one that looked inevitable as he began undoing the pressure that had been built over the course of the morning with irritating ease, was given away with a rush of blood to head, enticed by Aiden Markram looping the ball up and drawing him into a big, booming drive which flew to Marco Jansen at first slip.
Smith also played a role in perhaps the most crucial moment in Australia’s defeat. Not only did dropping the catch off Bavuma when he was on 2 cost 64 runs, but the compound finger dislocation Smith suffered as a result meant he was off the field for the defining passage of the game. So often, Smith has been a galvanising presence in the field for Australia, shouldering the leadership burden as Pat Cummins works through his second and third spells, his six-for of 24 hours before now distant. Part of that passage of the game also involved Australia not being able to rely on Beau Webster, who conceded 20 runs from his three overs in the first innings, with the runs piling on. As the Bavuma-Markram partnership passed three figures, Australia fumbled their way into a hole too deep to find their way out of.
The result of Smith’s injury is that he will likely miss the start of their series against West Indies which begins in just over a week’s time. He’s not the only one Australia will likely face at least part of the next WTC cycle without. The possibility of losing Mitchell Starc from that infrangible bowling quartet at some point in the next two years will have to be reckoned with, removing the only left-arm pacer Australia have had in their arsenal since Mitchell Johnson’s retirement. A similar question mark hangs over the contenders waiting to take over from Nathan Lyon, who will be months off his 40th birthday at the time of the next WTC final.[
The when’s and how’s of his retirement, as well as Khawaja’s, could impact Australia at the worst time in their three-finals-in-a-row bid. While the trip to the Caribbean makes for a gentle start to their 2025-27 cycle, Australia’s final two away series will be the toughest of their allocation. They will travel to South Africa for the first time since 2018 at the end of 2026, to face a side which by that point will be unbeaten in home bilateral Test series for eight years. That series will precede the last assignment of their schedule, five matches in India.''
Ultimately, two-and-a-half years of work coming down to one match is already a sticking point within the format, and Australia will still be heavily favoured to reach the next showpiece on the weight of history and the star-power they will still have driving them forward. But, the frailties South Africa exposed over three days at Lord’s are ones Australia must address if they are to successfully evolve into their next incarnation.
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