WTC 2025-27 Final Scenarios: How Can India Still Qualify After Eden Gardens Defeat Against South Africa?

The defeat in Kolkata has pushed India to fourth place on the World Test Championship points table, but they need not worry – yet.

India had started the 2025-27 WTC well, with a 2-2 draw in their longest overseas tour of the cycle, in England. A 2-0 win against the West Indies further enhanced their position before they were jolted by South Africa at the Eden Gardens: chasing 124, they folded for a mere 93.

With a PCT of 54.16, India now sit at fourth place on the WTC 2025-27 points table, well behind Sri Lanka and South Africa (66.67 each). India are slightly ahead of Pakistan (50), and well clear of the others. Australia, who have not played other than their 3-0 sweep in the West Indies, top the table with a perfect PCT of 100.

🚨 MATCH RESULT 🚨

An incredible performance from #TheProteas Men at Eden Gardens! 🏟🔥

A phenomenal turnaround as South Africa claims victory by 30 runs to go 1-0 up in the Test series! 🇿🇦 pic.twitter.com/3jDrTZpCVd
— Proteas Men (@ProteasMenCSA) November 16, 2025

Updated WTC 2025-27 standings after IND vs SA first Test

Position	Team	M	W	L	Drawn	Deducted	Points	PCT
1	Australia	3	3	0	0	0	36	100.00
2	Sri Lanka	2	1	0	1	0	16	66.67
3	South Africa	3	2	1	0	0	24	66.67
4	India	8	4	2	1	0	52	54.16
5	Pakistan	2	1	1	0	0	12	50.00
6	England	5	2	2	1	2	26	43.33
7	Bangladesh	2	0	1	1	0	4	16.67
8	West Indies	5	0	5	0	0	0	0
N/A	New Zealand	0	-	-	-	-	-	-

India’s remaining games at the 2025-27 WTC

v South Africa at home: 1 Test (Guwahati, from November 22, 2025)

In Sri Lanka: 2 Tests (August 2026)
In New Zealand: 2 Tests (October and November 2026)
v Australia at home: 5 Tests (January and February 2027)

How can India qualify for the 2025-27 WTC final?

As is evident, India are yet to play 10 of their 18 Tests in this cycle. In other words, the future is likelier to impact their final standing than what has currently taken place. Other teams will also play more games (New Zealand, for example, are yet to start their campaign!).

One way to predict India’s chances is to go by the PCT secured by the second- and third-placed sides in the previous editions. In 2019-23, New Zealand had qualified with 70 while Australia had missed out with 69.2, but the points system was significantly different back then.

In the new-points-system era, in 2021-23, India had 58.8 and South Africa 55.56. And in 2023-25, Australia had 67.54 and India 50. Thus, in the closely fought 2021-23, a PCT of 55 did could not get South Africa through, while in the duopoly of 2023-25, it was enough. A safe target for India, thus, can be a PCT of 60.

What do India need to get to 60? Six wins and two draws (and two defeats) will take them to 61.11, and seven wins and three defeats to 62.96. That is roughly what India need to do in their remaining ten Tests, six of which will be at home and two more in Asia.

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