For the longest time, KL Rahul had one big problem in Test cricket.
He never knew where, or whether, he would be playing.
Rahul's first batting position in the format in December 2014 was at No.6, before he played in the top three every single time he batted between then and February 2023. The 2023-24 tour of South Africa saw him return to No.6, before he stepped in for Virat Kohli at No.4 against England. Rahul was backed to play at six against Bangladesh and New Zealand last year, to the extent that Kohli moved up to No.3 to accommodate him there.
But in the New Zealand series, Rahul was the one to be axed for Shubman Gill's return. In India's next engagement in Australia, they turned to him to open the innings after Rohit Sharma was absent and Abhimanyu Easwaran came a cropper in the A tour.
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This is all old news, though, and while it is a miracle he hasn't developed whiplash, this state of flux is something Rahul has gradually gotten used to – it was the same story for him in the IPL this year for Delhi Capitals.
As far as Test cricket is concerned, Rahul's spot in the side is now as firm as it's ever been. Rohit Sharma's retirement has left an opening at the top of the order, which he is the favourite to fill, thanks largely to his experience and burgeoning partnership with Yashasvi Jaiswal.
Also read: KL Rahul's adaptability is India's gain, but his own loss
If any further indication was needed, he travelled to Northampton for India A's second game against England Lions, and was drafted straight into the XI at the top, pushing specialist opener Easwaran down to No.3.
With his security in the side at an all-time high, the upcoming Tests against England push another challenge to the forefront.
His first innings of the tour saw him ton up against the Lions, a knock described as “virtually chanceless” on the broadcast. He lasted 168 balls, compiling 116 runs with the patience and panache that has become a hallmark of his batting, especially overseas.
Yet, enter any online space and the reaction was relatively pessimistic; not to the batting itself, but to Rahul's prospects for the Test matches themselves. Accurately or otherwise, he has developed a reputation for starting series, especially away from home, quite well – before tailing off towards the end.
Does KL Rahul's form really drop across long Test series?
Take the most recent Border-Gavaskar Trophy. Rahul's 77 in the first Test in Perth received plaudits from all over, and helped set up a famous Indian win. He made only two more 30-plus scores in the series – 37 in the second Test and 84 in the third. Across the last two Tests, he batted four times and didn't cross 24.
Indeed, this is a trend that seems to have held over the course of Rahul's Test career, when playing away from home. In India, there has been no real drop-off in his returns (the average of 199 in 5th Tests is from a solitary innings against England in 2016).
Away from home, he is in and around the level of top seven batters during the first two Tests, before averaging over 10 runs fewer than the rest later on. The averages of top seven batters as a whole also shows that wickets have not gotten significantly tougher later on in series.
As an aside, it appears here that he has a resurgence in fifth Tests, but that average of 50.8 is from just four innings, one of which was 149 against England in 2018 – the other three yielded 54 runs at 18.0.
It's not a trend limited to four and five-Test series, though. In shorter series away from home, it's more of the same.
KL Rahul – Overseas Test series of three matches or fewer
| Innings | Runs | Avg | Avg of top 7 batters | |
| 1st Test | 10 | 390 | 39.0 | 31.2 |
| 2nd Test | 12 | 278 | 23.2 | 30.8 |
| 3rd Test | 7 | 127 | 18.1 | 26.0 |
India need KL Rahul to bring along more consistency this time around
Apparently, the perception of Rahul's consistency – and the air of pessimism around his latest knock – are both somewhat justified. It is difficult to nail down why exactly this is the case. One could argue it may be sheer luck, but the trend has persisted for roughly a decade.
A purely cricketing explanation could be the nature of his method. Away from home, Rahul builds his batsmanship on extremely tight play around the off stump, in classical fashion. The restraint there might force bowlers into bowling wider lines to tempt an offensive shot, which he then cashes in on. Targetting the stumps could be less appealing to the opposition, for fear of drifting onto the pads.
But deeper into a series, as bowlers get into their rhythm, they may be more confident in hitting just the right line against Rahul, gradually moving straighter and bringing more dismissal types into play, which he may not be able to ward off as well. Indeed, when playing overseas, 40.7 per cent of his dismissals in the first two Tests of a series have been bowled or lbw, and that goes up to 61.1 per cent in Tests three, four and five.
The other possible explanation could just be fatigue, mental or physical, that Rahul feels the effects of more than others. It is difficult to speculate on this (somewhat nebulous) aspect from outside a team environment, but it is a fact that overseas tours can be taxing – naturally, the longer ones more so.
After Rohitand Kohli's retirements, and with Cheteshwar Pujara and Ajinkya Rahane no longer in the picture, Rahul has graduated to the post of India's senior-most batter on this tour. With the clutter of uncertainty over his place in the team off the table, it is consistency he will now have to gain – a young batting lineup needs to be able to lean on him.
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