Jasprit Bumrah is slated to play only two of the remaining four Tests in the England series. Which ones could they be?
India lost the first match of the series at Headingley despite being on top for a major part of the first four days. Bumrah took a five-wicket haul (5-83) in the first innings, his 14th in Test matches, but couldn't pick up a wicket (0-57) in the second as England chased down 371.
There were some concerns over his fitness towards the end of the game as he was not called upon to bowl during the final hour of England's chase despite the game still hanging in the balance. However, India captain Shubman Gill dismissed all doubts after the game, saying that the seamer was fit.
Also read: Catches, collapses and small centuries: Five areas India lost the Headingley Test
"No, no, he is completely fit. Nothing like that. There were only 15–20 runs left, so we just wanted to give it to some other bowlers, but he is definitely fit," he said.
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Gambhir: Important to manage Bumrah's workload
Heading into the series, it was clearly communicated by India's chief selector when the squad for the series was announced that Bumrah would feature in three of the five Tests only to manage his workload.
The Headingley loss has not changed that equation as Gill and head coach Gautam Gambhir reiterated India's stance of limitting the seamer to three Tests in the series. However, which of the next two Tests Bumrah will play has not been disclosed - or perhaps even decided - yet.
"It’s definitely a match-by-match decision. We’ve got a good break after this match, so once we reach Birmingham and assess the wicket, we’ll decide whether he plays or not," Gill said.
"I think for us to manage Bumrah's workload is more important because there's a lot of cricket going forward and we know that what he brings to the table as well," Gambhir said. "So before he came on this tour, it was already decided that he's going to play three Test matches, but let's see how his body turns up. But we haven't decided which two other Test matches he's going to play."
Also read: India's Test tail is the worst in world cricket, but they can do little about it
Which of the four Tests could Bumrah end up playing?
The venues for the remaining Tests are: Edgbaston (July 2-6), Lord's (July 10-14), Old Trafford (July 23-27), The Oval (July 31-August 4).
There are a number of factors that would go into deciding which of these games Bumrah plays. Since workload is the primary concern, it's unlikely that the Indian team will risk him for back-to-back games with small gaps between them. That essentially rules out the possibility of Bumrah playing both the second and third Tests, or the fourth and fifth Tests, given those games only have four-day gaps.
The possible permutations that remain are second and fourth, second and fifth, third and fourth, and third and fifth Tests. But holding Bumrah back and playing him in the fifth Test when the series could already have been lost would not be the most optimal use of his abilities. That then leaves only two possible set of games he could realistically play - second and fourth, and third and fourth.
In the Bazball era, three Tests have been played at Edgbaston, seven at Lord's, and three at Old Trafford. Among them, Lord's has been the most bowler-friendly in general, and also the most spin-friendly, with seamers and spinners averaging 25.43 and 40.26 respectively. Edgbaston (50.47) and Old Trafford (51.13) have largely been graveyards for spinners while being almost equally conducive to seamers (averages of 31.71 and 29.86 respectively).
Pace/spin split at the remaining ENG-IND venues in the Bazball era
| Venue | Pace avg | Spin avg |
| Edgbaston | 31.71 | 50.47 |
| Lord's | 25.43 | 40.26 |
| Old Trafford | 29.26 | 51.13 |
| Oval | 28.95 | 24.95 |
Given the drop-off in quality between Bumrah and the rest of India's seamers, they might prefer resting him at venues which they think would offer the most help for the quicks so as to allow them a larger margin for error which Bumrah doesn't require. If the pitches for the upcoming games follow the trends that these numbers suggest, Lord's should be the most helpful for fast bowlers, meaning Bumrah could miss the third Test. If he does, that locks him in for the Edgbaston (second) and Old Trafford (fourth) games.
Playing Bumrah in the second Test also makes sense from the perspective of series dynamics too. India would want to give themselves the best shot to level the series at Edgbaston before heading to a possibly seam-friendly Lord's where the livelier surface should reduce the difference in quality between the two seam attacks.
Assuming India win with Bumrah at Edgbaston and lose without him at Lord's, the series will still be alive at 2-1 heading into the fourth game at Old Trafford. Given the long 17-day gap between the second and fourth Tests, workload will not be a concern and the visitors can play their ace seamer hoping to turn the series around.
While first, second, and fourth seems the most likely combination of games Bumrah will play in this series, there are two ways this plan can go out of the window.
If India lose both the second and third Tests (and thus, the series) with Bumrah playing one of those, they might not want to risk him for either of the last two games limiting his participation to just two matches in the series. On the other hand, if the series is level at 2-2 (or 1-1) heading into The Oval, India might just be tempted to push him to play a fourth game in the series. However, the clarity and consistency with which they have claimed that Bumrah won't play more than three games, that possibility seems unlikely.
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