Pat Cummins

Pat Cummins is a doubt for the first Ashes Test, with a lumbar injury meaning has not been able to resume bowling with the Perth Test just six weeks away.

The news that Cummins may be sidelined for the first part of the series has led to speculation among some that England's Ashes hopes have been boosted. Cummins was the leading wicket-taker in the last Ashes series in Australia, taking 21 wickets at 18.04 and leading the home-side to a 4-0 victory.

Writing in his column in The Telegraph, former England captain turned pundit Michael Vaughan went as far to label England favourites in light of Cummins' injury: "With Cummins in charge, Australia are rarely beaten. He is nicknamed the Postman for a reason – he always delivers. He just has this ability to drag them over the line in tight situations. He has a presence, like Ben Stokes, that is almost impossible to replace."

Vaughan did caution, however, that England should still be "very wary" of Australia. "This England side have wasted opportunities in the past," he wrote. "Just look back to the last Ashes series, they blew that. They had a chance to win the series against India at the Oval last summer and blew that."

While fellow former England captain Michael Atherton was more circumspect in his assessment of England's position, he also stated that their chances had improved with Cummins' injury. "England’s chances, already decent in my opinion, will be much stronger still," Atherton wrote in The Times. "Cummins is the youngest in an ageing, if brilliant, attack and any absence would ask searching questions of Mitchell Starc, 35, and Hazlewood, 34.

"The natural replacement, and the man who has stepped into the breach whenever one of the big three is missing, is Scott Boland, who is 36 years of age himself. Boland has a fine record, but holds no fear for a batting line-up that took him for almost five runs an over in the drawn series in 2023, when he took just two wickets in two matches."

Boland, who will likely replace Cummins in Australia's attack if Cummins is injured, took 6-7 in the 2021 Ashes Boxing Day Test, when England were bowled out for 68. He also took 10 wickets against India in Sydney earlier this year.

In addition to the pundits, England vice-captain Harry Brook was also positive in his assessment of how Cummins' injury could affect England's chances. Speaking ahead of flying to New Zealand for the white-ball series which precedes the Ashes, Brook said: "He [Cummins] is an amazing bowler and has been for many years. He bowls at high pace, with high skill. With him out of their side for the first game, from what we've seen, hopefully that plays into our hands… [But] we can't take anybody lightly."

However, Cummins has yet to be officially ruled out of the first Ashes Test, with Mitchell Starc bullish this week about his chances of playing, despite his lack of preparation. "He's in good spirits," Starc said. "He's [Cummins] ultra-positive as always, and there's still some weeks to go before we get to Perth for the Test prep," said Starc. "So we'll see where that lands. Hopefully we see a lot of him through the summer, and we'll see where we get to in Perth."

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