Everyone calm down: Twelve reasons for England Ashes pessimism

Look, can everyone just calm down?

The news this week that Pat Cummins might, possibly, maybe, miss the first Ashes Test and then, after that, who knows, was greeted with the kind of English glee usually only reserved for royal babies and new Richard Curtis films. “Hopefully it plays into our hands,” Harry Brook says. England’s decent chances are now much stronger, says Michael Atherton. Michael Vaughan would not argue against someone labelling England as favourites.

Whether accurate or not, this is an unusual place for England to be in. Usually the pre-Ashes crescendo is an exercise in hope, wondering if perhaps a plucky group of underdogs can land a blow or two if everything falls in their favour, rather than in actual belief. Now, England Expects. In some ways, you can see why. England, baring some fiddling around at No.3, know their best XI, whereas Cummins’ injury now gives Australia questions at top and tail. The whole McCullum-Stokes era, we now see, has been pointed towards this moment. McCullum has described it as “the biggest series of all of our lives”. Stokes himself should be fit, and so should the rest of the relevant quicks. Jofra Archer and Mark Wood are primed to stride out at Perth, together in an England Test XI for just the second time.

Fans will quibble about selections and strategy, but England could hardly hope to be better placed, while Australia have several causes for concern. But does that make them favourites? So great has the gap between the two sides been in Australia, so often have we convinced ourselves that maybe they have a chance, that some expectation management is surely warranted. Rather than scrabbling around for reasons of Ashes optimism, as would ordinarily be the case, here instead are 12 reasons for pessimism. Australia will probably retain the urn, but that’s OK if we at least saw it coming.

Reason 1: Pat Cummins isn’t yet ruled out – Let’s hear what Australia head coach Andrew McDonald has to say: “We're still optimistic, hopeful, but this time next week, I think we'll be in a position to get a better gauge on where he's at. We've still got a little bit to go. One of the benefits with Patty is that he has had the ability to prepare for Test matches off shortened preparations. So if it was to be shrunken down, we'd be very confident that he would still be able to perform in the first Test.”

In short, Cummins has not yet been written off for Perth.

Reason 2: Pat Cummins has missed Tests before, and Australia have been fine – The Ashes alive, England hopeful, their skipper ruled out at short notice. We’ve been here before. Last time out, before the second Test at the MCG, Cummins had a close encounter of the Covid kind and was confined to his hotel room. Jhye Richardson simply stepped up to take five-for. In the next Test, it was over to Scott Boland who skittled England for 68 (and on him, his average of 12.63 in Australia is surely more relevant than his two middling Tests in the 2023 Ashes). There may well be Aussie fretting over pace depth and seam stocks. Don’t let it fool you.

Reason 3: Australia have Josh Hazlewood this time – It’s easy to forget that Hazlewood, whose record in Australia is only a fraction off Cummins’, played minimal part in the 2021/22 series. He played one Test and claimed three wickets. Now he’s bowling as well as ever, with 51 wickets at 15 since the start of last year. Gulp.

Reason 4: England’s fast bowlers might also get injured – They are fit now, but the idea that Wood, Archer and Gus Atkinson are going to cruise through the series without tweaking something feels fanciful. Cummins’ injury is notable because of how rare it is, with he and Mitchell Starc each playing nine of the last 10 Ashes Tests in Australia. England’s pace arsenal is bulky, but a knock here and there and Australia may sense weakness.

Reason 5: The spinners – Australia’s spinner is Nathan Lyon, one of the finest finger-spinners in the game’s history. England’s first-choice spinner is Shoaib Bashir. Their second-choice spinner is Will Jacks.

Reason 6: England have a combined one Test hundred between them in Australia – For all the encouraging signs emanating from England’s batting unit, it is almost entirely unproven in Australia. That one century came from Stokes all the way back in 2013/14. Apart from him, only Joe Root, Zak Crawley and Ollie Pope have toured the country before. It might all click. Those first-time tourists, Ben Duckett, Harry Brook and Jamie Smith, have all enjoyed excellent starts to their Test careers. Then again, it might not.

So much of the optimism around England assumes that the batting is a sure thing, or as sure as they can hope it to be. But you can also poke holes in it if you are so inclined. Zak Crawley’s game is seen as being tailormade for Australian conditions, but he still only averaged 28 there in 2021/22. Harry Brook’s record in Australia, averaging 6 in the BBL and 9 in the T20 World Cup, might mean nothing, or it might mean something. Root is as best placed as he’s been to finally get that hundred, but there are reasons why he is yet to. Jacob Bethell looks great, but doesn’t have a first-class hundred. Maybe it will all be fine.

Reason 7: Those flippy pull shots Jamie Smith and Harry Brook love go for six in England, but go into the fielder’s hands on massive Australian grounds

Reason 8: Those runs down to third that Joe Root and Ben Duckett love that are an easy single in England and fly off the top edge to slip in Australia

Reason 9: Marnus might be good again – Ten hundreds in 30 Tests, and then one in 28. The average dipping from above 60 to close to 45. The ICC ranking dipping from first to outside the top 25. Dropped from the squad altogether. Until a few weeks ago, England might have thought they’d seen the last of Labuschagne, a thorn in the side right from that concussion sub rescue act through to the damp ton that saved the sodden Manchester Test in 2023 and confirmed Australia’s Ashes retention. Now, via grade cricket runs, List A runs, Sheffield Shield runs, he would appear to be back. “I feel like I've really stripped it back and my focus is just scoring runs,” he said after one of those four hundreds in quick succession. It feels like a good thing to focus on.

Reason 10: Steve Smith might be Steve Smith again – Maybe it’s the Mandela Effect in action, a collective delusion. Maybe England fans wished so hard for Steve Smith to drop off that they conned themselves into believing he actually had. Then you look at the numbers themselves. Ten hundreds in five years since a century-less, Covid-hampered 2020. An average above 50 in three of those. A century and a fifty in consecutive World Test Championship finals. And this, apparently, is the bad Smith. He passes the eye test again now, as much as he ever did, those whirring parts all back in unison, rather than glitching and faltering. He’s got one more in him.

Reason 11: All the rest of their batters – Travis Head is really very good. His special skill is smashing rapid scores of around 150 at hinge points of marquee series and finals of ICC events, which is a decent trait to have. Cameron Green looked like cracking Test batting before an injury last year, and dealt with an infernal set of Caribbean conditions as well as anyone. Alex Carey has the best batting record of any Aussie keeper since Adam Gilchrist. Beau Webster rarely looks great, but has an excellent set of numbers, and England are known for making all-rounders they suspect might be crap look amazing. Speaking of, Mitch Marsh is back in the conversation.

Reason 12: This is just what happens – Step back for a second. England haven’t won a five Test series since 2018. They haven’t won an Ashes series since 2015. They haven’t won a Test in Australia since 2011. Their record in the country reads 0-13 since then. I know this. You know this. But let’s keep it in mind. Every time, England rock up, and their fans think, maybe this time will be different. And you know what? Maybe this time will be different. It’s just that different could look like losing 3-1, rather than 5-0.

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