Pat Cummins has returned to Australia's Ashes squad after recovering from a lumbar bone stress injury which kept him out of the first two matches of the series. However, Australia now face a selection conundrum over who will make way for his return.
Cummins' absence from the Perth and Brisbane Tests tested Australia's bowling depth, with Josh Hazlewood also injured. Alongside Mitchell Starc, Scott Boland came in while fringe quicks Michael Neser and Brendan Doggett also stepped up. Neser was included for the second Test after Nathan Lyon was left out as Australia fielded a four-strong pace attack with all-rounder Cameron Green offering a fifth pace option.
However, Australia head coach Andrew McDonald confirmed this week that Lyon was likely to return in Adelaide, with the pink ball now put away for the series. Cummins is also set to come back into the side. "Barring anything else happening in the next week, I'd be expecting to Pat to be tossing the coin and putting the blazer on," said McDonald. "I think Nath [Lyon] is going to have an incredibly huge impact in the last three Test matches. If you look to what he did at the MCG last year, when the surface became benign, sort of day three onwards, he was able to navigate through and hold an end. And that's the rhythm we want."
Bringing in both Lyon and Cummins means two bowlers from Australia's Brisbane victory will have to miss out, and it's not a clear call. Neser took five wickets in England's second innings with Scott Boland taking 2-47. While Boland has played two Tests on the bounce, the long gaps between both Perth and Brisbane, and Brisbane and Adelaide lessen the need to rotate him out of the attack. Starc, with his 18 wickets so far in the series, is nailed on to retain his place bar injury.
The one who looks the most likely to miss out is Doggett. He took 2-27 and 3-51 in Perth but was less effective in Brisbane. Doggett was originally a replacement for Cummins in Perth but prioritising the 'rhythm' of three quicks and a spinner that McDonald wants would mean Lyon replacing him. That would leave one of Boland or Nesser dropping out for Cummins. There's a logic that says Neser would make the most sense to drop out. He took the new pink ball in Brisbane and has only ever played day-night Test cricket; and is also the slowest of Australia's pace options, while both of Boland and Cummins could take the new ball alongside Starc, or drop in at first change.
McDonald was clear he expects Cummins to return, but breaking up a winning bowling attack is part of his dilemma. There's no clear-cut choice, with Boland holding a higher position in the Australia pace ranks, while Neser's five-for at The Gabba would make dropping him a tough call. Equally, Cummins last played a professional match five months ago in Australia's final Test against West Indies. Regardless of the work he will have got through in the nets, he will be going into Adelaide cold on match fitness.
Speaking on The Close of Play podcast this week, former England wicketkeeper Geraint Jones said: "Is it right that Pat Cummins walks straight back into this team with so little cricket under his belt? No cricket under his belt, when you've got a team that is working together and working successfully."
Nevertheless, Cummins is primed to come back in and Australia have a difficult decision on their hands. Get three of their four horsemen back on the pitch and cut half of the pace attack which has got them 2-0 up, or leave out one of their captain or greatest-ever off-spinner.
Speaking to Fox Sports, former Australia fast bowler Brett Lee said: “Is it fair on Doggett and Neser? Well, unfortunately, that’s part and parcel of the game of cricket ... Neser bowled the house down. But they [Neser and Doggett] are the second cab off the rank, with all due respect, because you have got Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon, who are world class.”
There's also another dilemma to be solved further up the order, with Usman Khawaja likely to be fit for Adelaide. Bringing him back into the side would mean breaking up the Travis Head-Jake Weatherald partnership, and likely dropping Head back into the middle order to replace Josh Inglis.
All of that means, despite going 2-0 up in dominant fashion, Australia could make three unenforced changes for the Adelaide Test.
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