Explained: Why India win more Tests without Bumrah than with him

Since his Test debut in the 2018 Cape Town Test against South Africa, Bumrah has taken 210 wickets at 19.60 – making him the only bowler in Test history with 200-plus wickets at a sub-20 average. 110 of these wickets, at 14.50 have come in victorious matches, the second-most among Indians in this period, behind R Ashwin’s 155 wickets at 18.07. In this span, India’s 39 Test victories are the joint-second highest in the format, tied with Australia.

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Yet India tend to win more frequently when Bumrah isn’t playing, with 19 victories in 27 matches (70 percent win rate) during his absences, compared to a 43 percent win rate when he plays. While these raw numbers are counterintuitive, they do not do justice to Bumrah’s effectiveness and reveal the entire picture.

India's home/away Test win rates with and without Bumrah

While Bumrah has emerged as India’s pace spearhead, his unique action makes him injury-prone. So over the years, India have used him judiciously, playing him mostly in away tours and occasionally in high-profile home series. That three-fourths (73.9 percent) of his Test appearances (34) have come away from home is a testament to India’s cautious handling of their premier fast bowler. However, eight out of the 12 Test matches Bumrah has played at home came last year – four against England, two against Bangladesh, and two against New Zealand.

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Notably, since Bumrah’s debut, India’s 17 overseas Test wins rank second only to England’s 18. While Bumrah has contributed to 12 of those victories, like the overall record, India’s win rate in away matches is surprisingly lower when he plays compared to when he doesn’t. Contrary to expectations, the team has been more consistent overseas in his absence.

India - Test record with Bumrah

India - Test record without Bumrah

Why do India win more without Bumrah?

The answer lies in the opposition strength: Three of India’s five away wins without Bumrah came against relatively easier oppositions – two Tests in Bangladesh (2022) and one in the West Indies (2023), both of which he missed due to a recurring back injury.

Only two of these wins came in SENA countries (South Africa, England, New Zealand, Australia), where conditions tend to favour fast bowling.

The first was the historic Gabba Test (2021) against Australia, where India triumphed despite fielding a bowling attack with just four combined caps after injuries decimated their first-choice lineup. The other was their recent 336-run victory over England at Edgbaston – India’s largest away win by runs in Test history.

Excluding India’s non-SENA away wins and 14 home victories when Bumrah didn’t play, their Test win rate without him drops sharply from 70.4 to 33 percent – significantly lower than their overall 43.5 percent win rate when he plays.

Bumrah: A force to reckon with in SENA countries

Before Bumrah’s Test debut in 2018, India had won just 18 SENA Tests in 86 years, having played their first match at Lord’s against England in 1932. Since his arrival, they’ve claimed 12 SENA victories in just seven years, with Bumrah contributing to 10 of those wins. Among these, his crowning achievements were India’s maiden Test series win in Australia (2018-19) and their repeat triumph in 2020-21.

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Bumrah’s 150 wickets as a visiting bowler in SENA countries rank fourth all-time, placing him among the elite. Among bowlers with 100-plus wickets in these conditions, only England’s Sydney Barnes (44.5) boasts a better strike rate than Bumrah’s 46.1.

Record in away Tests in South Africa, England, New Zealand & Australia

Hence, the claim that India win more Tests without Bumrah than with him – based on superficial numbers alone – must be taken with a grain of salt. It overlooks a critical context: India play more home matches without Bumrah, relying on their spin-heavy attack, while carefully managing his workload for crucial SENA tours.

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