Contrary to popular narratives, India will be starting the Test series against England as slight favourites.
There is no typo in that headline. India will start the five-match Test series in England as slight favourites.
One can always hear the responses. About the gaping holes left by Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli in the batting line-up. About the worrying pattern in KL Rahul’s Test career. About Shubman Gill’s ordinary record in “SENA” nations – and the challenges awaiting him at the start of his career as a Test captain. About Yashasvi Jaiswal’s inexperience in England.
Each one of these concerns is logical. The Indian batting will be tested again and again by bowlers who have grown up in English conditions over the course of five gruelling Test matches. Worse, the scars of the 2024/25 Australia tour or the New Zealand home series preceding that are still raw.
However, the concerns ignore two points. One, “in England” is not quite what it used to be. And two, every cricketing contest features two nations, and there are probably just as many concerns around the English bowling.
The Bazball era change
Pages (or kilobytes, depending on your preferred media) have been written on Bazball till date. Almost all of them agree on one aspect: scoring has been significantly quicker in England since the start of 2022.
But there is more to that. As batting averages went down around the world in the World Test Championship era, England followed the trend... until they switched to their rapid-scoring tactic. Not only did run-scoring become quicker but batting averages went up as well – unlike the rest of the world.
Batting averages in men’s Test cricket by three-year phases
| Phase | England | Rest of the world |
| 2016-2018 | 29.73 | 31.12 |
| 2019-2021 | 28.70 | 30.23 |
| 2022 onwards | 32.42 | 30.24 |
All numbers until end of day, June 17, 2025.
Thus, as England assumed a different batting strategy, conditions changed. It is evident that the usual difficulty associated with batting in Test matches in England is not quite there anymore unless the conditions change.
Batting in England has traditionally been more challenging against seamers, especially against the new ball. Even that has changed over the past three summers.
Bowling averages in men’s Test cricket since 2022
| Host Country | All bowlers | Seamers | Seamers opening bowling |
| South Africa | 25.60 | 24.45 | 25.42 |
| Australia | 28.12 | 25.40 | 24.64 |
| West Indies | 27.51 | 26.24 | 26.15 |
| Bangladesh | 29.50 | 27.48 | 27.30 |
| England | 31.72 | 30.33 | 29.35 |
| India | 27.97 | 30.88 | 30.85 |
| New Zealand | 31.28 | 31.46 | 29.37 |
| Sri Lanka | 35.24 | 36.68 | 35.70 |
| Pakistan | 35.30 | 37.87 | 36.46 |
All numbers until end of day, June 17, 2025. Zimbabwe, Ireland, and the UAE have been ignored due to the sample sizes.
When an Indian team, particularly an inexperienced batting unit, toured England, the usual narratives involved speculations around how they would adapt to the English conditions against the home seamers. However, as is evident, seamers do marginally better in England than in India these days.
Of course, drastically different conditions may greet the Indians this time, but that would mean a departure from England’s usual tactic at home.
A series of fast bowlers
If India are without Kohli and Rohit, England will be without James Anderson and Stuart Broad. True, they did beat the West Indies and Sri Lanka at home last summer, but they were probably expected to win both series.
Anderson and Broad are not the only ones England will miss. Neither Jofra Archer nor Mark Wood is part of the squad for the first Test. Despite that – and the fact that Leeds is set to bask in sunshine for the course of the first Test match – they are going in with Shoaib Bashir as the lone spinner.
All that hint at England backing their seamers to take 20 wickets, a prerequisite for a Test match win. If the conditions assist the English seamers – as we have seen, that will be a departure from their approach of three summers – they will help their Indian counterparts as well.
England have Chris Woakes, Brydon Carse, Josh Tongue, Jamie Overton, and Sam Cook to choose from, but the Indian unit – Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj, Prasidh Krishna, Arshdeep Singh, Shardul Thakur – is the stronger one. And if the conditions do assist spin at some point, India hold an upper hand there as well.
Fun fact: Carse, Tongue, Overton, and Cook have 42 Test wickets between them, though Woakes makes up with his 181. While the Indian batting features several greenhorns, the English bowling does not boast of experience either.
There is little doubt that India are better equipped to take 20 wickets. That probably makes them favourites, though only slightly – for Bumrah will miss two Tests and one of Wood and Archer may return.
