Why global warming could prompt India to play two spinners in England

When India tour England, or indeed when any Asian team visits one of the ‘SENA’ countries, the focus of the touring side is understandably, on seam bowling.

Building fast bowling stocks is vital for any team in Test cricket, and particularly so in South Africa, England, New Zealand and Australia since conditions overhead and on the ground do not always allow for spinners to play a role.

Between 1950 and 1999, India played 34 Tests in England, winning three and losing 18. In 32 of them, they played two or more specialist spinners through a combination of paucity and plenty. India produced many spinners and very few pace bowlers, leaving them with little option.

This century, India have played 28 Tests in England, with a 6-16 win-loss record. Just five of them have featured more than one specialist spinner – only natural, thanks to the emergence of superior fast-bowling stocks in the form of Javagal Srinath, Venkatesh Prasad, Zaheer Khan, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Jasprit Bumrah and more.

Four pacers, one spinner – the straightforward and preferred choice

Essentially, when India have had the choice, they have almost always leaned away from the extra spinner in England. Since Virat Kohli’s reign as Test captain, they have also tended towards playing five bowlers rather than four, in a concerted effort to take 20 wickets.

Putting these two together, it seems most likely that India will try to play a 4+1 seam-spin attack. Ravindra Jadeja, a bonafide all-rounder, could be that lone spinner, while batting at No.7. He remains India’s primary advantage over England – for the first Test at least, the hosts do not have a frontline spinner who can bat as well.

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Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammed Siraj are locks for two fast-bowling spots. The third remains slightly unclear, but much is in Prasidh Krishna’s favour after he bowled well in Sydney in January, and had a stellar IPL campaign. Akash Deep, his most likely competitor, has hardly bowled in the past two months. Harshit Rana, a late addition to the squad, took 1-99 against England Lions at the end of May.

Shardul Thakur could well be the fourth pacer, given the batting value he adds at No.8 (he even scored a century in the intra-squad warm-up match). Nitish Kumar Reddy is also a possible contender, but at this stage of his career is far more a batter who can bowl. Bumrah-Siraj-Krishna-Reddy-Jadeja is not quite a five-bowler attack; perhaps four-and-a-half.

Thakur and Reddy, therefore, provide different balances to the side. On paper, they may both be seam-bowling all-rounders but they are not (rather, should not be) competing for the same spot. Thakur is a genuine fifth bowler.

Picking the personnel for a 4+1 attack, therefore, is fairly straightforward; Bumrah-Siraj-Krishna-Thakur-Jadeja. In the (unlikely) event that India are on board with playing four genuine tail-enders, Akash Deep or Harshit Rana (or even Arshdeep Singh, to provide the left-arm angle) could sneak in ahead of Thakur.

But can they explore a move away from the 4+1 combination, to 3+2?

Also read: Kohli's replacement, Bumrah's support cast: India's predicted XI for the first England Test

How does weather dictate India's call to play two spinners in England?

Perhaps now more than ever, a two-spinner combination in England is somewhat viable thanks to a combination of factors – weather, England’s batting style and India’s personnel.

This English summer has been one of the hottest and driest ever recorded. According to the UK’s Met Office, this May in England was the second-hottest one in 142 years, the 31st-driest in 190 years and the third-sunniest in 116 years. April 2025 ranked third, 34th and first on those same metrics. (Thank/curse global warming for this.)

Why does this matter? Well, it may slightly alter the nature of the English wickets. Overhead conditions in England are usually overcast and somewhat moist, with rain a threat even in summer months.

That means the grass cover on cricket pitches can remain intact for longer, assisting pace bowlers more. But this year, with temperature and dryness close to all-time high levels, grass cover might erode quicker and provide fast-bowling assistance for a shorter period.

Read more: From heir to the hot seat: What to expect from Shubman Gill, India Test captain

Wickets in England will rarely truly ‘rag’, unless the match goes into day five on a worn pitch. The level of deterioration that allows spinners to be more effective in the subcontinent and even Australia is thanks to intense sunlight that hardens a pitch and allows it to develop cracks. While this summer is one of the sunniest by English standards, in absolute terms it is unlikely to cause wickets to ‘break up’ and really help spinners until late on. Instead, the wickets may very well just flatten out for long periods in the middle.

“I think what you've got to consider is we've had a very dry summer here so far. There's been hardly any rain for the last three months. And that means that all the pitches will be quite dry,” former England captain Graham Gooch noted in an interview with the Times of India.

“They might seam around a little bit and they might turn a little bit towards the end. But they'll be pretty good pitches, generally.”

In County Championship matches this year at the five Test venues for this series – Headingley, Edgbaston, Lord’s, Old Trafford and the Oval – spinners have been used more sparingly, but have not been significantly worse off than quicks from the second innings onwards.

Record in County Championship 2025 matches at England-India Test venues

Could Kuldeep Yadav find a spot in India's playing XI?

Flatter surfaces have also been preferred by England, to aid their attacking style of play with the bat. “They just want to have a good surface so it's true, really, so we can hit through the line of the ball,” Yorkshire head of grounds Richard Robinson told ESPNCricinfo three days ahead of the first Test. “That's really what they're looking for.” Robinson also added that for the first Test at Headingley, he had to carry out a “different kind” of preparation due to the dryness.

On flatter pitches, India’s fourth quick might leak runs, if as expected, that is Thakur or Reddy. Add to that the fact that Kuldeep Yadav is in the squad and tormented England in a home series last year; and the case to play him as a second spinner becomes stronger.

Through his career, Kuldeep has been relatively less dependent on the pitch itself to be effective, with his ability through the air being a big part of his armoury. In fact, in his 13-Test career so far, he has performed marginally better when conditions have been relatively kind to batters.

Kuldeep Yadav in Test cricket

Old Trafford and The Oval, the venues for the last two Tests of this series, have seen spinners take up a more significant chunk of the bowling load this Championship season, compared to other venues. If the wickets themselves are more spin-friendly, India could even consider playing off-spinner Washington Sundar, who will benefit from the surface and add solid batting at No.8.

Conventional wisdom would point towards 4+1 as the bowling combination for India to employ, but there is evidence to suggest 3+2 could be more than effective. That may weaken the batting a touch, with Kuldeep one spot too high at No.8 – but the trade-off may just be a risk worth taking.

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