India have two cruicial group stage matches remaining at the 2025 Women's World Cup. But they are not at a do-or-die stage.
Women's World Cup 2025: Updated points table after IND vs ENG match
| Teams | Mat | Won | Lost | NR | Pts | NRR |
| Australia (Q) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | +1.818 |
| England (Q) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | +1.490 |
| South Africa (Q) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -0.440 |
| India | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +0.526 |
| New Zealand | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -0.245 |
| Bangladesh | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -0.676 |
| Sri Lanka | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1.564 |
| Pakistan | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1.887 |
Which teams are still in contention?
Australia, England, and South Africa have already booked their semi-final berths, having reached 9, 8, and 8 points respectively.
That leaves India, New Zealand, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan fighting for one spot. None of these sides has been technically eliminated yet, though the two sides who have the best chance for qualification are India and New Zealand, currently placed fourth and fifth on the points table.
Matches remaining or each team at the World Cup
| Team | Matches remaining |
| Australia | vs ENG, SA |
| England | vs AUS, NZ |
| South Africa | vs PAK, AUS |
| India | vs NZ, BAN |
| New Zealand | vs IND, ENG |
| Bangladesh | vs IND |
| Sri Lanka | vs PAK |
| Pakistan | vs SA, SL |
What is the tie-breaking criteria - points, wins, or net run rate?
Before getting into the specifics of who needs what, it is important to clarify what the criteria for tie-breaking is. If two or more teams are tied on points, the team with more wins will be placed higher even before net run rate calculations come into picture.
If still the number of points and the number of wins are the same for two or more teams, then the tie-breaking process moves to the net run rate. The next level involves checking the head-to-head record of the teams in question if the net run rate turns out to be equal as well.
If even that doesn't resolve the ordering, the team(s) seeded higher at the start of the tournament will be placed higher than the teams with a lower initial seeding.
What do India need to qualify?
The India vs New Zealand clash on October 23 is arguably the most important match in the race for the fourth semi-final spot, but it is not the virtual quarter-final that people are considering it to be. This is because New Zealand's four points have come from a win and two rained-out games, while India have won two matches en route to their four points.
Also read: So near, yet so far: Why India always fail to cross the final hurdle in global tournaments
This means even if India lose to New Zealand and win their final league game against Bangladesh, they'll end up on three wins and six points. To qualify in that scenario, they would just need England to beat New Zealand in their last league game by any margin, with net run rate not having any bearing on the final qualifications.
If they do, India will be tied with New Zealand on points, but will qualify for having won three matches to New Zealand's two.
Of course, the simpler route for India would be to just win both their matches. That would take them to eight points, beyond the reach of any of the teams below them.
In fact, New Zealand would effectively be knocked out if they lose to India irrespective of what happens after that. This is because India's victory will take them to three wins, while New Zealand would be able to win at best two matches, even if they beat England in their last game.
Does this mean India would qualify if they beat New Zealand on Thursday? If Bangladesh lose against Sri Lanka on Monday (October 20), then yes.
Apart from India and New Zealand, Bangladesh are the only side still in the fray to reach three wins. A defeat against Sri Lanka – their sixth match – would rule out that possibility. If India then beat New Zealand, no other team would be able to reach three wins and six points both, guaranteeing a semi-final spot for India.
Can India get up to third place?
Yes, they can. For that to happen, India would have to win both their remaining games and reach eight points, while South Africa, currently on eight points, would have to lose both theirs – against Pakistan and Australia.
South Africa's net run rate is already worse than India's. Two defeats for them and two victories for India – by any margin – should only widen that gap.
In what scenario will India be eliminated?
India will be knocked out if they lose both their matches, or if New Zealand win both theirs. New Zealand will qualify in that scenario.
It's also possible for India to be eliminated even if they win against New Zealand. In that case, Bangladesh would have to win both their matches – against Sri Lanka and India – and win them by big enough margins to overtake India's net run rate (since both teams would end up with three wins and six points). That would seal a historic semi-final berth for Bangladesh.
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