India’s World Test Championship 2025-27 final hopes took a big hit with a 2-0 home series defeat to South Africa. How many more losses can they afford in the cycle?
India entered the two-Test South Africa series hoping to add to their strong start to the new WTC cycle after a 2-2 draw with England and 2-0 win over West Indies. But their hopes came crashing down as the Proteas beat them in consecutive Tests.
They have now dropped to fifth in the WTC table with four wins in nine games and a PCT of 48.15. With nine further games remaining in the cycle, they will need to be at their best to stake a claim for a place in the final.
Updated WTC 2025-27 standings after IND vs SA Test series
| Position | Team | Matches | Won | Lost | Drawn | No Result | Deducted | Points | PCT |
| 1 | Australia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 100 |
| 2 | South Africa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 75 |
| 3 | Sri Lanka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 66.67 |
| 4 | Pakistan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 50 |
| 5 | India | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 52 | 48.15 |
| 6 | England | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 36.11 |
| 7 | Bangladesh | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16.67 |
| 8 | West Indies | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | New Zealand | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
India’s remaining games in the 2025-27 WTC
In Sri Lanka: Two Tests (August 2026)
In New Zealand: Two Tests (October and November 2026)
Australia at home: Five Tests (January and February 2027)
India’s best-case scenario would be to win all nine games, taking their total points to 160 in 18 games and shoot up their PCT to 74.07. This will, in all likelihood, book their spot in the final scheduled for June 2027 at Lord’s. But given their recent run of form and record in New Zealand, that looks unlikely.
2nd Test, India vs South Africa
vs
- Ball by ball Over
How can India still qualify for the 2025-27 WTC final?
India have played the most matches of anyone in the current WTC cycle, but still have to play half of their scheduled games. Teams like Pakistan and Sri Lanka, above them in the table, have played just two games each, while New Zealand are yet to start their campaign.
One way to predict how many more games India can afford to lose is to take into account the PCT of the teams that finished second and third in the previous two WTC cycles. The 2019-21 cycle isn't considered because the scoring system was different.
In 2021-23, India finished second with a PCT of 58.80, while South Africa narrowly missed out with a PCT of 55.56. In the 2023-25 tournament, India were third with a PCT of 50, whereas Australia, in second place, made it with 67.54. The four PCTs mentioned average out to 57.95, and given the uncertainties surrounding sports, one can say that crossing 60 should be enough to take a side into the final. Now, how can India get to 60 or more?
If India win six and lose three of their remaining nine games, they will only stretch their PCT to 57.41. Considering India win six, draw one and lose two, they will get to 59.25, which would have been enough in the 2021-23 cycle but not in the following one.
If Shubman Gill and co. register six wins, draw two and lose just one, they will achieve a PCT of 61.11. And if they win seven and lose the other two, they will also safely cross the 60-mark to get to 62.96. Six wins and three draws will also get them to 62.96, but that scenario is improbable.
This means that India, at max, can afford to lose two of their remaining nine games but will need to win the other seven. If they lose three, their WTC 2025-27 final hopes will probably be over.
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