The race for the men's T20 World Cup in 2026 is hotting up, with a couple of unfancied sides in the mix to qualify from Europe.
How does qualification for the 2026 T20 World Cup work?
Set to get underway next February, the T20 World Cup already has 13 confirmed teams, out of 20 in all. Two teams – India and Sri Lanka – qualified as co-hosts, with Afghanistan, Australia, Bangladesh, England, South Africa, USA and West Indies making it based on final positions at the previous tournament in 2024. Ireland, New Zealand and Pakistan qualified on the basis of the ICC rankings.
The other teams will come from the ICC's regional qualifiers; one from the Americas (Canada have taken this spot), two each from Europe and Africa, and three from the Asia-East Asia Pacific region.
The Europe Region Final kicked off in The Hague on Saturday (July 5), with five teams – Scotland, Netherlands, Italy, Jersey and Guernsey – competing. After a single round-robin stage, the top two teams in the standings will qualify for the 2026 T20 World Cup, joining England and Ireland as the European sides in the competition.
Italy on the brink of qualification following Scotland upset
In their first matches, Netherlands and Italy defeated Jersey and Guernsey respectively. Both matches on Sunday (July 6), Guernsey-Scotland and Italy-Jersey, were washed out before Jersey beat Guernsey and Scotland beat Netherlands on Tuesday.
All those results meant that ahead of Wednesday's matches between Italy and Scotland, and Netherlands and Guernsey, the top two spots in the table were occupied by Italy and Jersey – ranked 32nd and 27th in the world respectively. Scotland and Netherlands, by contrast, sit 13th and 15th respectively. Both have appeared at multiple World Cups, including the 2024 T20 World Cup. Netherlands also qualified for the 2023 ODI World Cup.
Neither Italy nor Jersey have ever qualified for a World Cup. Despite their world rankings, the former in particular are not to be taken lightly, counting former Australia Test opener Joe Burns among their ranks as well as the Manenti brothers, Ben and Harry, who have experience in the Big Bash League and Australian domestic cricket.
Opener Emilio Gay turned out for England Lions in May, and is a regular for Northants in county cricket. Pace bowler Thomas Draca was part of ILT20 outfit MI Emirates, and all-rounder Grant Stewart has enjoyed an eight-year long first-class career with Kent.
On Wednesday, they pulled off a massive upset, defeating Scotland by 12 runs to sit on the brink of qualification.
ICC Men's T20 World Cup Europe Region Qualifier standings
| Team | Matches | Won | Lost | Tied | NR | Pts | NRR |
| Italy | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | +1.722 |
| Jersey | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +0.430 |
| Scotland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -0.150 |
| Netherlands | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -0.029 |
| Guernsey | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1.941 |
Remaining fixtures:
- Netherlands v Guernsey, July 9
- Jersey v Scotland, July 11
- Italy v Netherlands, July 11
Scenarios: How can Italy qualify for the 2026 T20 World Cup?
At the moment, Italy are well-placed with five points from three matches, and a very healthy net run rate. However, they can be overtaken if all of the following happen:
- Netherlands beat Guernsey later on July 9.
- There is a winner in Jersey v Scotland.
- Italy lose to Netherlands by a large enough margin for their net run rate to drop below the winner of Jersey-Scotland.
Net run rate-related scenarios no longer hold if Italy end up defeating Netherlands – at that point, they will qualify alongside the winner of Jersey-Scotland. Those also go out the window if Jersey-Scotland is a washout.
If Jersey beat Scotland...
Italy have to keep their margin of defeat to Netherlands as low as possible (this goes without saying). But roughly, if Jersey's margin of victory is 10 runs, Italy can afford to lose by 35 runs and still qualify.
Similarly, if Jersey win by 20, Italy need to lose by fewer than 25, and so on. When chasing here, a 10-run win for Scotland would be roughly equivalent to winning with seven balls to spare, 20 runs equal to 15 balls to spare, etc (exact numbers will vary depending on the target).
If Scotland beat Jersey...
This is the likelier scenario given the sides' world rankings, and luckily for Italy, this is much more preferable. If Scotland beat Jersey by roughly 10 runs, Italy can afford to lose to Netherlands by 58-59 runs. If Scotland win by 20, this margin comes down to about 48 runs, and so on.
However, if Scotland win by more than 68 runs, the Netherlands game becomes a must-win for Italy.
In fact, as long as Scotland's margin of victory over Jersey is below this mark, the possibility of a mutually beneficial result exists in the Italy-Netherlands clash; a victory for Netherlands, which would send them through as group toppers, but by a small enough margin to see Italy through in second place.
Image credit: Instagram / cricket.italy
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