Contrary to reports, following an early T20 World Cup exit, Australia's qualification status for the 2028 Olympic Games is not quite in jeopardy yet.
How does qualification for the 2028 Olympics work?
Cricket will be at the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles for the first time since 1900. With over two years to go, the venue for the event has already been decided; the Fairplex in Pomona, California.
The teams – in fact, the mode of qualification itself – for the men's tournament is yet to be finalised, though. Qualification for the women's event will depend on the T20 World Cup set to take place in England later this summer.
Reports from BBC and the Guardian last year said that the six-team event could see USA qualify automatically as hosts, joined by one team each from the Americas, Africa, Europe, Asia and Oceania. This could be the top-ranked side in the ICC men's T20I rankings at a particular cut-off date; for instance, the end of the ongoing men's T20 World Cup.
ICC men's T20I rankings, as of February 18, 2026
| Position | Team | Matches | Pts | Rating |
1 | India | 79 | 21569 | 273 |
2 | England | 52 | 13433 | 258 |
3 | Australia | 48 | 12377 | 258 |
4 | New Zealand | 62 | 15515 | 250 |
5 | South Africa | 59 | 14315 | 243 |
6 | Pakistan | 81 | 19268 | 238 |
7 | West Indies | 70 | 16510 | 236 |
8 | Sri Lanka | 56 | 12846 | 229 |
9 | Bangladesh | 67 | 14925 | 223 |
10 | Afghanistan | 51 | 11273 | 221 |
The Age in Australia reported on Wednesday (February 18) that following their early exit from the tournament, Australia could fall below New Zealand in the T20I rankings, if the Black Caps were to make the semi-finals or final of the World Cup.
If that were to happen, New Zealand could make the Olympics ahead of Australia, as the top-ranked side from Oceania (considering this method of qualification to be accurate).
Why Australia will not fall below New Zealand
Australia are currently ranked third in the world, with a rating of 258. New Zealand are fourth, with 250. On the surface, this does not seem an insurmountable gap.
The ICC rankings work as follows; teams earn a certain number of points from each match they play, depending on the strength of their opposition relative to theirs, and the result of the game (naturally).
These points are then divided by the number of matches taken into account; matches played in the preceding two years have the full weight while those in the two years before that have a half-weight. The ICC updates this aspect on May 1 every year.
Currently, Australia have 48 matches and New Zealand 62. These counts will go to 49 and 67 respectively, after Australia's dead-rubber against Oman and in the event that New Zealand reach the final.
If Australia were to lose to Oman, their rating would dip to 256.
For New Zealand to reach a rating of 256, they would need at least 17,152 match points by the end of the tournament, i.e. 67 matches. They currently have 15,515, so this means a further 1,637 need to be gained across the remaining matches.
Playing, and beating, the strongest sides in the competition would give them the best chance of getting there. The strongest Super Eights group they can get is England, Sri Lanka (confirmed) and Pakistan (not yet confirmed). They could beat all three of them, then potentially beat South Africa in a semifinal and India in a final.
By the current ratings, these are the points they would gain from those fixtures:
| If NZ beat… | …they earn (Opp. rating + 50) | Opp. rating |
| Pakistan | 288 | 238 |
| Sri Lanka | 279 | 229 |
| England | 308 | 258 |
| South Africa | 293 | 243 |
| India | 323 | 273 |
| Total | 1,491 | - |
Essentially, even if New Zealand were to go all the way and win their first men's T20 World Cup, they would not collect enough rankings points to overtake Australia, in the event that Australia lose to Oman.
The exact numbers in the above table will vary slightly depending on results between now and those matches taking place, but not to the extent that New Zealand can gain another 140 or so points to overtake their neighbours.
If Australia, as expected, defeat Oman, their rating will remain at 258 and New Zealand would be even further off the mark. In a nutshell, reports of Australia's Olympics dream crashing down are greatly exaggerated (for the moment).
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