McConchie in the Powerplay, Santner No.4? How New Zealand could beat India in the T20 World Cup final

After a thrilling Wankhede victory, India emerged as the second finalists for the men’s T20 World Cup, and will start as massive favourites on home turf against New Zealand. The Black Caps have stumbled on their way to the semi-finals, with a loss each in the group stage and Super Eights, before swatting South Africa aside at the Eden Gardens. India have been dominant not just in this tournament, but over the past few years – post the 2022 T20 World Cup, they have a 30-2 win-loss record across men’s ICC white-ball events.

So, what can New Zealand do to tip the odds in their favour and follow their women's side, the White Ferns, in lifting the T20 World Cup?

Play the extra bowler

New Zealand’s biggest weak link in this tournament has been their fifth bowler. Rachin Ravindra has managed 11 wickets so far, but seven were on extremely helpful wickets in Colombo. He will also be turning the ball into the left-hander, and India have several of them. In his own words after the semi-final, “I’m a batsman first and foremost.”

All-rounder Jimmy Neesham hasn’t quite been up to the mark, going at over 10 an over this tournament without providing much wicket-taking threat. Against a terrifying Indian side, going thin on the bowling front could be a recipe for disaster. Matt Henry, Lockie Ferguson and captain Mitchell Santner are their only four-over locks; eight overs between Neesham, Ravindra, Cole McConchie, Glenn Phillips and Daryl Mitchell is not ideal by any stretch.

Jacob Duffy has also struggled a touch in the tournament so far. Replacing one of Neesham and Mark Chapman with Kyle Jamieson as a middle-overs enforcer might be the way to go. Their seven and eight will then become Santner and McConchie, but New Zealand may feel they can put their faith in the pair after their rescue act against Sri Lanka.

Start with McConchie

In the semi-final, off-spinner McConchie took the crucial early wickets of Quinton de Kock and Ryan Rickelton in the second over… and then did not bowl again. Neither wicket was a particularly good display of off-spin bowling, but the matchup remains a favourable one for New Zealand.

Three of Abhishek Sharma’s seven dismissals this World Cup have been to off-spinners – he has looked to attack them early – and India will most likely have three lefties in their top five between Abhishek, Ishan Kishan and one of Shivam Dube and Tilak Varma. Early wickets may be New Zealand’s only way of applying any kind of squeeze on this Indian lineup, and McConchie could be key.

Abhishek Sharma: Dismissals in T20 World Cup 2026

On the same note, their star quick Matt Henry matches up well with Sanju Samson, albeit in a limited time frame. In last month’s T20I series, Henry dismissed him twice in three games.

Save Santner’s overs

As a spinner, skipper Santner has naturally operated through the middle overs; 10.1 of his overs have come between overs 7 and 11, and 8.5 in overs 12 to 16. The final might be a good day for him to tend slightly towards the latter, with an extra quick potentially taking over immediate post-Powerplay duties.

India have moved Tilak Varma down the order in the last few games, presumably to ensure he can start his innings against pace bowling. Santner has a solid head-to-head record against both Suryakumar Yadav and Hardik Pandya. Between these two and Tilak’s tendency to get stuck a touch against spinners, it would make sense for the captain to delay his own entry into the game.

While dew did affect New Zealand against South Africa, the wider trend in Ahmedabad is for it to not play a significant role, so that may be one worry off the table if New Zealand want to implement this.

Record vs Mitchell Santner in T20 cricket

Seifert to take on Arshdeep

New Zealand openers Finn Allen and Tim Seifert have already shown just how good they can be in this tournament. Both have done the rounds on the franchise circuit over the last 12-18 months, and there appear precious few weaknesses in their game.

One chink in the armour, perhaps, even in the last year is in Allen’s record against left-arm pace. While he has struck at nearly 200 in the last year, an average of 24 suggests he might struggle a bit more against that angle. Seifert has fared far better by comparison.

It would take some strike management in the Powerplay to ensure Seifert can face up to Arshdeep Singh a bit more; if this pair gets out of the first six intact, they could make things very difficult for India.

T20 record vs left-arm pace since March 6, 2025

Experiment: Santner at No.4?

Coming into this game as underdogs, New Zealand should be willing to experiment slightly. If they allow the game to be played along ‘normal’ lines, nine times out of ten, one would expect India to come out on top. Essentially, they must try to challenge their opponents with the unexpected.

A radical option in the batting innings could be to promote Santner. His form with the bat in T20 cricket has skyrocketed, striking at 147 since the start of 2025. While his best work has come against pace bowling at the death, pairing him with another leftie in Ravindra, who is likely to bat at No.3, could force India into a couple of uncomfortable choices.

Varun Chakaravarthy has gone for 35-plus runs in each of his last four games, and has conceded at nearly nine an over against left-handers over the last year or so. Two lefties might also deter them from bowling left-arm spinners Axar Patel and Abhishek Sharma.

That could mean a few overs of Dube or the offie Tilak, who are certainly a downgrade on Axar at the very least; it’s only a hope, but if New Zealand are willing to take the risk, a couple of big overs could be in it for them.

If this does work out, India may bring back one of their death bowlers early. The knock-on effect might be an uncomfortable over or two towards the back end, where with Phillips and Mitchell, New Zealand might just be well-placed to take advantage. The two of them strike at over 170 at the death against pace bowling, and McConchie is no mug with the bat either.

T20 record vs pace bowling in overs 17-20 since March 6, 2025

Follow Wisden for all cricket updates, including live scores, match stats, quizzes and more. Stay up to date with the latest cricket news, player updates, team standings, match highlights, video analysis and live match odds.