Despite their defeat against England, Pakistan can still qualify for the semi-finals of T20 World Cup 2026.
Pakistan’s first match of the Super Eights, against New Zealand, was washed out. They then lost their second match, the result of which made England the first team to qualify for the semi-finals (they had earlier beaten Sri Lanka).
Following New Zealand’s massive win against Sri Lanka, Pakistan seem to be headed for an uphill climb, though their task is not impossible.
T20 World Cup 2026 Super Eights Group 2 points table after New Zealand beat Sri Lanka
| Rank | Team | Matches | Won | Lost | Tied | N/R | Points | NRR |
| 1 | England (Q) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +1.491 |
| 2 | New Zealand | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +3.050 |
| 3 | Pakistan | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -0.461 |
| 4 | Sri Lanka (E) | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.800 |
Super 8 - Match 9, England vs New Zealand
vs
T20 World Cup 2026 Super Eights Group 2 schedule
February 28, 7pm local time: Sri Lanka v Pakistan, Pallekele
T20 World Cup 2026: What do Pakistan need to qualify for the semi-finals?
Including washouts, the three games can produce a total of (3x3) nine possible outcomes. For Pakistan to qualify, England have to beat New Zealand and Pakistan have to beat Sri Lanka – and these are necessary conditions, not sufficient. Anything else (including a washout in either game) will result in Pakistan’s elimination.
New Zealand’s excellent net run rate has made Pakistan’s chances more uphill. The net run rate difference between the two sides is +3.511 – in other words, about 70 runs across a 20-over phase.
That is the approximate margin Pakistan have to overcome. Assuming England and Pakistan bat first in their respective games, they need to win by a combined total of 70 runs. Thus, if England beat New Zealand by around 30 runs, Pakistan will have to win by about 40 (the exact number will depend on how many the teams score).
If the teams chase, they have to keep a combined total of approximately 50 balls in hand for Pakistan to qualify.
If one team (say, England) chases and win with 25 balls in hand and Pakistan bat first, they will need to win by around 35 runs.
