Here are the tactical aspects on which the India-England T20 World Cup semi-final may be decided.
Chasing is a no-brainer
Of the last 15 knockout games at the Men’s T20 World Cup, chasing sides have won 13: the other two were morning games involving India at the 2024 edition.
Of course, all of this cannot be attributed to the dew. But of these 13 games, nine were in Asia – where dew is likelier – and one involved Afghanistan’s capitulation for 55 on a pitch that got an “unsatisfactory” rating. Add to that the wisdom of Mumbai media, many of whom are certain that dew will have a role to play tonight.
Unfortunately, the right to chase comes with a 50 per cent probability. It is unfair, but it is what it is.
Switching a spinner for a seamer may seem prudent, but the decision may backfire if a team does that and bowls first – especially since (barring Varun Chakravarthy and Adil Rashid) the spinners of both sides are also good hitters of spin.
2nd Semi-Final, India vs England
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Hesitation may spell doom
As always, the T20 World Cup featured lower totals than the usual T20Is or franchise leagues, but the scoring has picked up since the Super Eights: the run rates have shot up from 8.52 in the first round to 8.99 thereafter. In matches played in India, the numbers read 8.65 and 9.65.
This can be because of several reasons. The weaker batting teams have been eliminated. Teams have got accustomed. The morning games are gone. Whatever it is, team totals are returning to the familiar between-World-Cups territory.
The team asked to bat first will already be at a disadvantage, and will have twenty overs to negate that. Powerplay risks have to be more frequent, and the final onslaught has to come earlier than usual. Shai Hope took his time to get off the block against India. Deterred by Cole McConchie’s double strike, South Africa crawled to 57-3 after eight overs (and that included a 17-run over) on a pitch that held no demons in the semi-final. They lost crucial overs and fell short (though one might argue that even 250 might have been too less for Finn Allen).
On the other hand, David Miller came out at 20-3 and took on Varun, as did Harry Brook (albeit while chasing) as wickets fell all around him against Pakistan.
To win while batting first tonight, a par score is unlikely to be enough. To negate the dew threat, teams need a total significantly above par – and a few balls spent in hesitation may decide the game. Fortunately, both teams have early dashers: while some of them have been among runs, the others await their turns.
Will Jacks or won’t Jacks?
India began this World Cup with three left-handers at the top. Naturally, opposition sides began to open bowling with off-spinners – Salman Ali Agha, Aryan Dutt, Aiden Markram – and found early success. Roston Chase would certainly have done the same, but the right-handed Sanju Samson’s inclusion and promotion prevented that.
Jacks has already won four Player of the Match awards in a single edition of a T20 World Cup. His off-breaks have played their part: after figures of 8-0-79-3 from 29 games until the end of 2025, Jacks has 24-0-193-11 across 10 matches thereafter, spanning a series in Sri Lanka and the World Cup. In eight bowling innings, he has bowled inside the powerplay five times, and choked Sri Lanka while opening the bowling.
Mumbai Indians used him six times in seven games at Wankhede in IPL 2025, but for only one over across six games on the road. He went for 10.42 an over here and did not get a wicket. Against left-handers, that number read 7.54 – and five wickets, of Ishan Kishan, Travis Head, Nicholas Pooran, Rishabh Pant, and Abishek Porel. In the ongoing tour of Asia, he has gone for 7.43 against left-handers but 8.52 against right-handers.
Yes, but it is important to use him judiciously. With Samson in the top three, should Jacks still bowl early overs? If he does, Suryakumar Yadav may want to counter that by moving up the order.
Frontload with Axar, delay Varun, keep Dube ready
India were excellent in their use of Axar Patel, not a strike bowler but generally a very good defensive spinner, against the West Indies. Against two right-handed openers, he bowled the fourth, sixth, and eighth overs, and returned immediately after Jasprit Bumrah’s double strike to complete his quota.
Varun, on the other hand, has been far from his best across the last three games. It started with Miller’s clinical takedown of the top-ranked bowler in the world: aware of the fact that Varun does not turn the ball a mile, Miller took early advantage of the powerplay field and targeted the boundary inside the V.
Against the West Indies, India kept Varun away from the powerplay. Across his first three overs, there was a wicket, an umpire’s-call survival, and only two boundary hits, and his figures might have looked better had he not had to complete his quota as the West Indians had already switched to top gear.
The same tactic may come handy again, but it is important for India to chip in with Shivam Dube here and there, particularly if they defend a total. An early over against an out-of-form Jos Buttler. An over immediately after a set batter gets out. The seventh over, where teams often take fewer risks than in the powerplay. And so on. If dew plays a part, every Dube over will mean one over fewer by a spinner bowling with a wet ball.
Who will sweep Rashid?
To no one’s surprise, Rashid – 11 wickets, economy 7.83 – has been key to England’s success. Aware of the Rashid threat, batters have used the sweep to take him down in this World Cup.
Has it worked? Batters have tried to sweep (conventional, slog, paddle, reverse) exactly one out of five of his balls and have scored at 9.38 an over. With other shots, that number drops to 7.45. Unfortunately, there is a caveat: the sweep has given Rashid a wicket every eight balls – more than twice as frequently as the 18-ball interval for other shots.
Thus, sweeping might have worked, but it involves an inherent risk. The Indian side does not have many sweepers, but they need to maximise scoring off him. While batting first, in particular, it is important they do not let his overs pass by a la Adelaide 2022.
