India face an uphill task after losing their T20 World Cup 2026 Super Eights game against South Africa by 76 runs.
India’s 76-run defeat against South Africa at Ahmedabad not only brought their record 12-match winning streak at the men's T20 World Cup to an end but also dented their semi-final chances. Here is what the points table looks like after the game.
T20 World Cup 2026 Super Eights Group 1 points table
| Rank | Team | Matches | Won | Lost | Tied | N/R | Points | NRR |
| 1 | South Africa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3.800 |
| 2 | India | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.800 |
| 3 | West Indies | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | Zimbabwe | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
T20 World Cup 2026 Super Eights Group 1 schedule
February 23, 7pm: West Indies v Zimbabwe, Mumbai
February 26, 3pm: West Indies v South Africa, Ahmedabad
February 26, 7pm: India v Zimbabwe, Chennai
March 1, 3pm: South Africa v Zimbabwe, Delhi
March 1, 7pm: India v West Indies, Kolkata
February 26, 3pm: West Indies v South Africa, Ahmedabad
February 26, 7pm: India v Zimbabwe, Chennai
March 1, 3pm: South Africa v Zimbabwe, Delhi
March 1, 7pm: India v West Indies, Kolkata
Super 8 - Match 4, Zimbabwe vs West Indies
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Zimbabwe vs West Indies | ICC Men's T20 World Cup, 2026 | Super 8 - Match 4
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
ZIM Zimbabwe
ZIM Zimbabwe
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WI West Indies
T20 World Cup 2026: What do India need to qualify for the semi-finals?
Assuming no match in the group is washed out, there are four combinations that will help India qualify: the four teams can finish with 6-4-2-0, 4-4-4-0, 4-4-2-2, or 6-2-2-2. The net run rate will come into play in the last two cases. If India lose both their remaining matches, they will be eliminated.
Scenario 1: 6-4-2-0 (India and South Africa winning both matches)
Since only one team can reach six points, India’s best bet lies in that being South Africa. If South Africa and India both win their two remaining games, both teams will go through irrespective of the outcome of West Indies-Zimbabwe.
Scenario 2: 4-4-4-0 (India winning both matches but South Africa winning one)
For this, India and two other teams have to finish on four each, while the other loses all three games. Since South Africa have won one, they will have to reach four points.
For this to happen, India need to win both games and South Africa lose to the team that also wins the match between West Indies and Zimbabwe. The two teams with the best net run rates then goes through.
Scenario 3: 4-4-2-2 (India winning both games, South Africa’s matches irrelevant)
This one is somewhat similar to the previous scenario – but net run rate does not have a role here.
India need to win both their games, while exactly one other team can win two games. This can be achieved by
1. South Africa winning one of their games (but whoever loses that game wins West Indies-Zimbabwe)
2. South Africa losing both their games
1. South Africa winning one of their games (but whoever loses that game wins West Indies-Zimbabwe)
2. South Africa losing both their games
Scenario 4: 6-2-2-2 (India winning one game, South Africa winning both)
This involves South Africa winning both their games and India losing against whoever loses the West Indies-Zimbabwe clash. That will bring three teams on two points each, and the team with the best net run rate goes through.
How bad is India’s -3.8 net run rate?
Pretty bad. To explain simply, since India lost by 76 runs, the sum of their winning margins across the next two games has to be 76 runs just for them to have a net run rate of exactly 0.
India’s best bet, thus, lies in winning both games and cheering for South Africa.
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