As the final names are hashed out for who will make the cut for Ashes selection, Ben Gardner predicts what England's squad sheet will look like.
Ordinarily, the last few rounds of the County Championship ahead of a significant winter Test tour would bring with them a little extra frisson. There would be places to be won and lost in England’s squad and XI, and opportunities for players not ordinarily on the radar as alien conditions hove into view.
This season, however, feels different, despite the magnitude of the challenge and the opportunity facing Ben Stokes’ England. It’s 14 years since England last won a Test in Australia, and yet there is a different sense of expectation this time. Another blanking would be a significant shock.
That is reflected in how settled England are. Though not all of their regulars have convinced England fans, as yet, you can rattle off most of a first XI and back-ups in most positions that the management wouldn’t need too much discussion over. Still, with the need for rest and rotation among the seam department, and the nature of an Ashes tour almost always bringing unforeseen changes, picking those to fill the outer reaches of a squad is crucial too. England might need to get all 17 or 18 picks right if they are to regain the urn for the first time in a decade.
The batters
On the plane
As long as Stokes is fit, the top seven picks itself, with Ben Duckett, Zak Crawley, Ollie Pope, Joe Root, Harry Brook and Jamie Smith taking up the other six spots. Jacob Bethell might have looked at sea in the India decider, and is currently enduring the slump many promising young batters go through. But his selection as England’s youngest ever captain for the Ireland T20Is shows how highly he is rated by Brendon McCullum and co. It would be a big surprise were he not to make the squad.
In the departure lounge
Jordan Cox, England’s form all-format batter, is likely to round out the squad. It’s not impossible, if Smith does cop a blow on the thumb during the Ashes, that England revert to giving Pope the gloves and batting Bethell at No.3, as they did in New Zealand last winter. But they won’t want to be forced into it, and Cox has done enough for Essex and Oval Invincibles to earn a place in the squad by right.
Waiting by the phone
Next next in line is James Rew, who earned a maiden squad call-up for the Zimbabwe Test with both Cox and Bethell unavailable, but England will likely be content to have him play on the concurrent Lions tour and add him to the main group if needed. In another lifetime, Sam Curran would be the designated Stokes back-up, but England seem to have gone off the all-rounder for the time being.
The quicks
On the plane
After successful returns from injury, Jofra Archer and Gus Atkinson are England’s first two quicks on the teamsheet. Mark Wood is looking to complete his own rehabilitation by playing for Durham in their bid to avoid relegation from Division One. If he comes through that unscathed and as quick as ever, he’s next on the list. If not, Brydon Carse and Josh Tongue have shown themselves to be quicks of Test potential, though both have work to do to improve their consistency and understanding of their own games.
In the departure lounge
The big question is around Chris Woakes, and not just because of a badly dislocated shoulder sustained at The Oval against India. That injury has not necessitated surgery, leaving open the chance that Woakes could be fit for a final crack against Australia. He has previously downplayed his chances of touring, given his poor record outside England, but he made a successful return to touring in Test series in Pakistan and New Zealand last winter. He played all five Tests this summer, but had lost some of the nip that made him a Compton-Miller Medal winner in the 2023 Ashes. Still, given how he can help balance the side if Stokes does sit out, and that conditions in Australia have been more conducive to seam and swing bowling in the last few seasons, England will be tempted to include him. The second Test being a day/nighter also helps Woakes’ cause.
England may not want an 18th squad member, but if they do, two names stand out. Olly Stone played Tests last year, and while injuries have again set him back, a run of form at the right time could push him up the pecking order. Matt Potts is strangely out of favour, but selection for the Ireland T20Is shows he is not totally out of England’s thoughts. His versatility and durability should make him an attractive option to round out a touring party.
Waiting by the phone
Jamie Overton would have had a decent shot at a touring spot, but has given it up to pursue franchise opportunities. Beyond him, there are plenty of candidates.
Josh Hull played a Test last year, but it didn’t quite go as planned, and while he might be one for the future, he’s not one for the present. Sam Cook is another to play just one Test so far, and like Hull, perhaps set himself back in doing so. The lack of pace was clear, without quite the seam incision to compensate. And while Cook’s international debut was largely anonymous, Sonny Baker’s was eye-catching for the wrong reasons, bowling the most expensive spell by an England ODI debutant. Of the three, Baker is the most likely to tour, but a place in the Lions squad feels more fitting.
There’s also the strange case of Ollie Robinson. He is 31 years old, averaged less than 26 on England’s last tour of Australia, has an overall Test average under 23, and is available for selection. And yet he last played for England more than a year and a half ago. Mostly that is down to fitness – he was unable to make it through his last Test match, a not-infrequent occurrence during Robinson’s career – and there is also a suggestion that his attitude doesn’t gel with what England are looking for. He also hasn’t torn up Division One this season, averaging a shade under 30, albeit in an abnormally high-scoring season. It’s possible to wonder whether England could have managed him better. At his best he is a rare talent, even operating close to 80mph. But whatever the rights and wrongs of the past, in the present, he is not part of England’s plans.
The spinner
On the plane
Shoaib Bashir’s India series was cut short by injury, and he has had an up-and-down time as a Test spinner so far. But England have invested plenty in him precisely because they see him as having the tools to succeed in Australia. They are unlikely to turn away from him now.
In the departure lounge
Rehan Ahmed has had the kind of season for Leicestershire that demands inclusion. First he came of age as a batter, making the most of an impromptu promotion up the order to reel off a string of hundreds. And while the bowling took a backseat for a while due to fitness concerns, he maintained a healthy average by regularly lopping off the tail. Then he combined both for a hundred and 13 wickets in the same game, a feat unmatched by any Englishman since Ian Botham in the 1980 Jubilee Test. He is also a viable Stokes replacement as a useful side-balancer.
Waiting by the phone
Had Liam Dawson bowled England to victory at Old Trafford, this conversation could be very different. Instead, while he didn’t bowl badly, he also didn’t give England anything they didn’t think he could, and so that Test comeback is likely to end at one game. Jack Leach is, once again, the County Championship’s standout twirler, but England’s preference for Bashir over him in the build-up shows their scepticism of the efficacy of finger-spin in Australia, unless it’s delivered from on high.
Predicted England Ashes squad
Ben Duckett
Zak Crawley
Ollie Pope
Joe Root
Harry Brook
Ben Stokes
Jamie Smith
Jacob Bethell
Jordan Cox
Shoaib Bashir
Rehan Ahmed
Jofra Archer
Gus Atkinson
Mark Wood
Brydon Carse
Josh Tongue
Chris Woakes
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